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Forecast check · checked Oct 12, 2026

Came true or not: forecasts from the world's leading AI models

The leading AI models from the USA and China make forecasts about where AI is heading. We copy every forecast that has a date word for word and compare it with what actually happened, so you can see whose forecasts came true. The forecasts were written down in advance, and we check them as their deadlines arrive.

Came true · USA11 of 15Partly: 4 · Too early: 14 · Accuracy: 87%
Came true · China3 of 14Partly: 7 · Too early: 3 · Accuracy: 46%

Only forecasts already decided count (came true, partly, did not); «too early» does not. In the accuracy column «partly» counts as half.

Accuracy of forecasts, by model

AISideForecastsCame truePartlyDid notToo earlyAccuracy
ClaudeUSA13630483%
QwenChina10253045%
MetaUSA84004100%
GeminiUSA2110075%
KimiChina31002100%
ErnieChina4021133%
GrokUSA40004too early to tell
ChatGPTUSA20002too early to tell

Every forecast

  1. Came trueChina will establish more than 50 AI standards by 2026.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: MIIT's 2024 draft guideline targeted at least 50 sets of AI standards by 2026 plus participation in 20+ international standards. By August 2026, MIIT officials said China had formulated nearly 200 key AI standards; specific releases in 2026 include GB/Z 177-2026, a national grading standard for AI-enabled consumer devices (May 8, 2026). The 'nearly 200' figure is an official cumulative count and may include standards drafted or in progress, not only formally issued ones.

    repeats China (government plan)

    Original words: China plans to establish 50+ AI standards by 2026
    By Claude

    Sources:

  2. Came trueEnterprise AI investment will increase in 2026.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: McKinsey's 10th annual survey, 'The State of AI in 2026: On the Road to ROI' (reported Sept 1, 2026), found 60% of respondents plan to increase AI investment over the next year (the November 2025 source cited 92%). Gartner's 2026 CIO survey reported 89% of CIOs planned to increase AI spend in 2026. Other 2026 surveys (e.g., Bain: ~75% of companies raising AI investment; reports of enterprise AI budgets roughly doubling from 0.8% to 1.7% of revenue) point the same direction; realized full-year 2026 spending totals are not yet final.

    repeats McKinsey (survey)

    Original words: Enterprise AI investment will increase (92% of companies surveyed by McKinsey)
    By Claude

    Sources:

  3. Came trueOpenAI will release GPT-6 in 2026.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: OpenAI released GPT-6 in 2026: GPT-6 Astra entered limited preview on September 3, 2026 and public release on September 4, 2026; GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna followed on September 22, 2026. On October 7, 2026 OpenAI rolled GPT-6 models with 'Intelligent UI' into ChatGPT for paid tiers, expanding to Free and Go users from October 8. Before that, the GPT-5.6 family launched July 9, 2026.

    Original words: GPT-6 (OpenAI)
    By Claude

    Sources:

  4. Came trueAnthropic will release Claude 5 in 2026.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, described as its most capable model for the general public, on June 9, 2026, following the limited 'Project Glasswing' access program. Claude Opus 5 followed on July 24, 2026, priced at $5/$25 per million input/output tokens and positioned at roughly half the price of Fable 5. Neither model is branded simply 'Claude 5', but both carry the version number 5.

    Original words: Claude 5 (Anthropic)
    By Claude

    Sources:

  5. Came trueGoogle will release Gemini 3.5 or Gemini 4 in 2026.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Google announced the Gemini 3.5 family at Google I/O on May 19, 2026 and shipped Gemini 3.5 Flash that day; on July 21, 2026 it added Gemini 3.6 Flash, Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite and Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber. The flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro was promised for June 2026 but, per reports through September 20, 2026, remained in partner testing and listed as 'coming soon'. No Gemini 4 release was found as of October 12, 2026.

    Original words: Gemini 3.5/4 (Google)
    By Claude

    Sources:

  6. Came trueDeepSeek will release DeepSeek-V4 in 2026.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: DeepSeek released DeepSeek-V4 (preview) on April 24, 2026 as open weights in two Mixture-of-Experts variants: V4-Pro (1.6T total / 49B active parameters) and V4-Flash (284B / 13B active), both with a 1M-token context window. API pricing was published at $1.74/$3.48 per million input/output tokens for V4-Pro and $0.14/$0.28 for V4-Flash. Later checkpoints (e.g. V4-Pro-0813) appeared on hosting providers.

    Original words: DeepSeek-V4 (DeepSeek)
    By Claude

    Sources:

  7. Came trueOpenAI's AWS infrastructure (under the $38B OpenAI-AWS deal) goes live by Q1 2026.Meta · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Mar 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: OpenAI and AWS announced the 7-year, $38B partnership on November 3, 2025, stating OpenAI would begin using AWS compute immediately, with all targeted capacity (NVIDIA GB200/GB300 on EC2 UltraServers) to be deployed before the end of 2026 and expansion into 2027+. Reports describe OpenAI as having begun using AWS right away; no public milestone found specifically declaring the full infrastructure 'live' by Q1 2026.

    Original words: OpenAI’s AWS infrastructure goes live (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026).
    By Meta

    Sources:

  8. Came trueAnthropic begins construction of data centers in Texas and New York.Meta · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: On November 12, 2025 Anthropic announced a $50 billion US data-center investment with Fluidstack, with the first custom facilities in Texas and New York coming online through 2026 (about 2,400 construction and 800 permanent jobs). An August 31, 2026 analysis reports the New York site (Lake Mariner, a repurposed coal plant) partly online, with a 42 MW building live in early July 2026 and a 168 MW building expected late September 2026, while the Texas site (Abernathy) was under construction for H2 2026 delivery. No primary-source groundbreaking ceremony announcement was found.

    Original words: Anthropic is breaking ground on data centers in Texas and New York.
    By Meta

    Sources:

  9. Came trueGemini 3 will be rolled out more widely beyond early-access countries.Meta · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Gemini 3 Pro launched November 18, 2025 across the Gemini app, AI Mode in Search, AI Studio and Vertex AI, and Google then expanded Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro in Search to more countries. During 2026 Google shipped successor models: Gemini 3.1 Pro, Gemini 3.5 Flash (Google I/O, May 19, 2026), and Gemini 3.6 Flash / 3.5 Flash-Lite (July 21, 2026); Gemini 3.5 Pro was still testing with partners as of late July 2026, and in September 2026 Google said Gemini 4 would come 'as soon as possible'. Access still varies by country, account and subscription.

    Original words: Wider rollout of Gemini 3 beyond early-access countries.
    By Meta

    Sources:

  10. Came trueInference prices for GPT-4-class models will keep falling.Meta · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Inference prices at fixed capability levels continued falling through 2026. Epoch AI analyses report prices for a constant performance level falling roughly 47% per quarter (median declines on the order of tens to hundreds of times per year since 2024). One example cited: an ARC-style result that cost $0.30 per question with o3 in January 2025 cost about $0.0004 with GPT-5.6 Luna in June 2026. Market trackers reported average token prices of ~$1.16-1.18 per million tokens in early August 2026, down 43% from $2.04 at end-May 2026; DeepSeek V4-Flash launched at $0.14/$0.28 per million tokens in April 2026.

    Original words: Continued pressure on inference costs — prices for GPT-4-class models have fallen ~90 % since 2023, making AI far more accessible.
    By Meta

    Sources:

  11. Came trueIn H2 2026, distinct AI governance models will solidify across the US, EU and Asia.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: By October 2026 the three regions followed visibly different tracks. The US issued a December 11, 2025 executive order ('Ensuring a National Policy Framework for AI') directing a DOJ task force to challenge state AI laws and pushing a minimally burdensome federal approach. The EU kept its risk-based AI Act but agreed (provisional deal May 7, 2026) to delay high-risk obligations to Dec 2, 2027 / Aug 2, 2028. In Asia, South Korea's AI Basic Act took effect January 22, 2026, while China continued issuing state AI standards (nearly 200 key standards per MIIT, Aug 2026).

    Original words: Regional divergence: Distinct AI governance models will solidify across US, EU, and Asia
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  12. Came trueIn H2 2026, tight integration between AI chips and model architectures will become a competitive advantage.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Chip-model co-design was a visible competitive theme in 2026: Google sells its in-house Ironwood (TPUv7) capacity externally, with Anthropic committing to up to one million TPUs (announced Oct 2025) and Meta reported to have signed a multibillion-dollar TPU deal in February 2026. OpenAI and Broadcom (announced Oct 13, 2025) are co-designing custom accelerators, with 10 GW to be deployed starting H2 2026 and first racks targeted for late 2026. 'Competitive advantage' itself is not directly measurable; these are the closest indicators.

    Original words: Hardware-software co-design: Tight integration between AI chips and model architectures will become competitive advantage
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  13. Came trueImage generation, still separate from main models (DALL-E 3, Imagen, Midjourney), is expected to be integrated into them in 2026.Kimi · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Image generation is now natively integrated into the main assistants: OpenAI released gpt-image-2 on April 21, 2026 and 'ChatGPT Images 2.0' to all ChatGPT plans on April 22, 2026 (native, with reasoning before generation), succeeding the 2025 GPT-4o native image generation that replaced DALL-E 3 in ChatGPT. Google's 'Nano Banana' line is Gemini's native image generation (Gemini 2.5 Flash Image, Gemini 3 Pro Image, Gemini 3.1 Flash Image). Midjourney remains a separate product.

    Original words: Image generation still separate (DALL-E 3, Imagen, Midjourney) but integration expected in 2026.
    By Kimi

    Sources:

  14. PartlyFrontier model API prices will be cut by an additional 50% or more in 2026.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Price moves in 2026 were mixed rather than uniform. OpenAI cut GPT-5.6 Sol (its frontier model) from $5/$30 to $4/$20 per 1M input/output tokens in August 2026 for a three-month period (~20-33%), after cutting mid-tier Terra by 20% and the small Luna model by 80% on July 30, 2026. Industry trackers describe a bifurcated market: sharp deflation in cheaper tiers (a token-expenditure index fell ~43% from late May to early August 2026) while top-tier frontier list prices rose relative to early 2026 (e.g., GPT-5.6 Sol listed at $5/$30 before the cut, vs GPT-5 at $1.25/$10 in 2025). No single authoritative index shows a 50%+ cut in frontier API list prices during 2026.

    Original words: Additional 50%+ price cuts on frontier model APIs
    By Claude

    Sources:

  15. PartlyIn 2026 Anthropic will gain ground in the enterprise market, Google in multimodal, and specialized vertical models (healthcare, legal, finance) will gain momentum.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Menlo Ventures' December 2025 report put Anthropic at 40% of enterprise LLM API spend vs OpenAI 27% and Google 21% (Google up from 20% in July 2025). Ramp's AI Index (card/bill-pay data from 50,000+ US businesses) showed Anthropic at 34.4% business adoption in April 2026, overtaking OpenAI's 32.3% for the first time. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro was reported to top most major benchmarks in spring 2026; no single authoritative 2026 measure of 'multimodal leadership' or of vertical-model momentum (healthcare/legal/finance) was found.

    Original words: Gaining: Anthropic (enterprise dominance), Google (multimodal leadership), specialized vertical models (healthcare, legal, finance)
    By Claude

    Sources:

  16. PartlyIn 2026 OpenAI will keep losing enterprise market share and pure open-source adoption will stall.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Menlo Ventures' late-2025 data put Anthropic at about 40% of US enterprise LLM API spend versus OpenAI at 27% (OpenAI had ~50% in 2023). In the Ramp AI Index for August/September 2026, 43.8% of Ramp business customers paid Anthropic vs 39.8% for OpenAI; however, a WSJ analysis of OpenRouter data (reported Oct 9, 2026) found OpenAI's share of coding/productivity traffic rose from under 25% at the start of 2026 to almost 50% by September. On open source, Constellation Research (Aug 24, 2026) cited Vercel AI Gateway data showing open-weight models rising from 11% of token volume in April 2026 to 62% by August 22, 2026, though under 4% of spend.

    Original words: Facing Pressure: OpenAI (enterprise share erosion), pure open-source plays (adoption stalling)
    By Claude

    Sources:

  17. PartlyAnthropic may expand Claude's multimodal capabilities in 2026.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: On April 17, 2026 Anthropic launched Claude Design (Anthropic Labs, powered by Claude Opus 4.7), which generates visual prototypes, slides and one-pagers on a live canvas for paid subscribers. Claude also has a voice mode (launched in beta May 2025) and image/document input; as of 2026 reporting, Claude still offers no native image, audio or video generation. Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 5 (July 2026) were positioned mainly on long-running agentic, coding and knowledge-work tasks.

    Original words: May expand multimodal capabilities in 2026 to counter Google’s advantage, but likely to maintain focus on high-value professional applications.
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  18. PartlyIn H1 2026, global chip shortages may limit AI capability advancement.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Jun 30, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: In H1 2026 the main hardware bottleneck was memory and packaging rather than GPU dies: SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron reported 2026 HBM output essentially sold out, DRAM contract prices rose ~93-98% in Q1 2026, and data-center GPU lead times were reported at 9-12 months. Compute scarcity hit AI services: Anthropic tightened Claude peak-hour usage limits in late March 2026 and in May 2026 contracted all of SpaceX/xAI's Colossus 1 (~220,000 Nvidia GPUs); GitHub paused new Copilot sign-ups in April 2026 citing compute demand. At the same time frontier releases continued (DeepSeek V4 in April, GPT-5.6 in July, GPT-6 in September) and Nvidia reported record Q2 FY27 revenue of $96.2B (data center $89.0B).

    Original words: Hardware constraints: Global chip shortages may limit AI capability advancement despite algorithmic improvements
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  19. PartlyIn H1 2026, organizations will shift from AI experimentation to production deployment at scale.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Jun 30, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: McKinsey's State of AI 2026 (reported Sept 1, 2026) found 44% of organizations scaling AI across the enterprise, up from 38% a year earlier (54% of $1B+ companies, about one-third of smaller firms), with only ~6% qualifying as high performers with measurable bottom-line impact. Gartner-cited 2026 data showed only 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents, and Gartner (Sept 29, 2026) predicted many vendor-built agentic deployments will be abandoned by 2028. No single direct measure of a 'shift to production at scale' in H1 2026 exists; these are the closest proxies.

    Original words: Enterprise maturity: Organizations will shift from AI experimentation to production deployment at scale
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  20. PartlyIn H2 2026, industry standards will emerge for multimodal interaction protocols.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Agent-interoperability standards consolidated under the Linux Foundation: Anthropic donated MCP to the Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF, founded December 2025 with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google among members), and Google's A2A protocol is also hosted by the Linux Foundation. MCP Apps (January 26, 2026) added interactive UI returns, and the MCP 2026 roadmap lists first-class audio/video modalities. No dedicated, broadly adopted standard specifically for multimodal (voice/vision) interaction protocols was found as of October 2026.

    Original words: Multimodal standardization: Industry standards will emerge for multimodal interaction protocols
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  21. PartlyIn H2 2026, marketplaces for AI agents and workflows will become mainstream.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Several large platform-run AI agent marketplaces launched or expanded in 2026: Google Cloud launched an Agent Marketplace in April 2026, Microsoft an Agent Store inside Microsoft 365 Copilot in May 2026, and AWS launched an AI agent marketplace on July 15, 2026 (AWS Summit New York) with Anthropic as a launch partner. AWS Marketplace's agents category (opened July 2025) grew from ~800 to over 2,100 listings by December 2025, and Salesforce AgentExchange launched with ~200 partners. 'Mainstream' has no standard metric; there is no independent measurement of enterprise purchasing share via such marketplaces.

    Original words: Agent economy: Marketplaces for AI agents and workflows will become mainstream
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  22. PartlyIn 2026 AI agents will act independently, e.g. booking vacations and managing finances without human input.Ernie · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Agentic transactions began appearing in 2026 but largely with human confirmation and in pilots: Visa launched its 'Agentic Ready' program on March 17, 2026 with 21 European issuers, an agent acting for a Santander customer completed a Visa card purchase in March 2026, and Mastercard took Agent Pay live in Portugal and the Netherlands in May 2026. In travel, Google ran a limited US test of agentic hotel booking in AI Mode while agentic flight booking had not launched; Priceline called its agent 'fully agentic' in June 2026. OpenAI discontinued ChatGPT's Instant Checkout on March 4, 2026, redirecting purchases to merchant sites. No broad consumer use of agents managing finances without human input was documented.

    Original words: AI agents will act independently (e.g., booking vacations, managing finances without human input).
    By Ernie

    Sources:

  23. PartlyIn 2026 quantum AI experiments may lead to breakthroughs in drug discovery and climate modeling.Ernie · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: 2026 saw research collaborations and demonstrations rather than a widely recognized drug or climate breakthrough attributable to quantum AI: Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN and IBM simulated protein complexes up to 12,635 atoms with hybrid quantum-classical methods; IonQ with AstraZeneca, AWS and NVIDIA reported a 20x speedup on a Suzuki-Miyaura reaction workflow; Roche-Quantinuum and Boehringer Ingelheim-Google partnerships target early-stage drug discovery; IBM and AMD announced quantum-centric supercomputing aimed at drug discovery and climate modeling. No quantum-derived drug candidate or climate-model result in production use was found.

    Original words: Quantum AI experiments may lead to breakthroughs in drug discovery and climate modeling.
    By Ernie

    Sources:

  24. Did notFull enforcement of the EU AI Act begins in January 2026, requiring compliance documentation for high-risk AI systems.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Jan 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The EU AI Act did not reach 'full enforcement' in January 2026; its original schedule set August 2, 2026 for most high-risk (Annex III) obligations. The Digital Omnibus on AI, proposed in November 2025, was published in the Official Journal on July 24, 2026 and entered into force July 27, 2026, deferring Annex III high-risk obligations to December 2, 2027 and Annex I (product-embedded) high-risk obligations to August 2, 2028. Prohibited practices (Feb 2025), AI literacy, GPAI obligations (Aug 2025) and Article 50 transparency duties stay on their original schedule.

    Original words: EU AI Act implementation: Full enforcement begins January 2026, requiring compliance documentation for high-risk AI systems
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  25. Did notIn H1 2026, EU AI Act compliance deadlines will force significant changes in model deployment strategies.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Jun 30, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Instead of new obligations biting in H1 2026, the EU adopted the 'Digital Omnibus on AI': provisional agreement on May 7, 2026, Parliament vote June 16, 2026, publication in the Official Journal July 24 and entry into force July 27, 2026. It deferred stand-alone high-risk (Annex III) obligations from August 2, 2026 to December 2, 2027, and product-embedded high-risk (Annex I) from August 2027 to August 2028, and gave existing systems until December 2, 2026 for AI-content labelling. GPAI model obligations had applied since August 2, 2025.

    Original words: Regulatory enforcement: EU AI Act compliance deadlines will force significant changes in model deployment strategies
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  26. Did notIn H1 2026, the number of independent AI startups will fall by 15–20% through acquisitions and closures.Qwen · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Jun 30, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No census of the number of independent AI startups exists, so a 15-20% reduction cannot be measured directly. Acquisition activity rose: Crunchbase counted 195 AI startup acquisitions early in 2026 (already 14% above all of 2025, per reporting), OpenAI made 8 acquisitions in Jan-Apr 2026, and SpaceX's reported ~$60B purchase of Cursor/Anysphere closed in Q2 2026. SimpleClosure's H1 2026 report said AI companies were only 14.4% of its shutdowns and it saw its fewest AI closures ever, while AI took $355.9B of $412.7B US startup investment in H1 2026.

    Original words: Consolidation wave: Expect 15–20% reduction in independent AI startups through acquisitions and closures
    By Qwen

    Sources:

  27. Did notIn 2026 AI regulation will tighten, with the EU AI Act and the U.S. AI Bill of Rights setting global standards.Ernie · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The 'AI Bill of Rights' was a non-binding 2022 White House blueprint; it was removed from active White House policy after January 2025, and Executive Order 14110 was rescinded, replaced by a deregulatory approach (AI Action Plan, July 2025; December 11, 2025 order targeting state AI laws). In the EU, the AI Act remains in force but the May 2026 Digital Omnibus deal delayed high-risk obligations to 2027-2028. South Korea's AI Basic Act took effect January 22, 2026.

    Original words: Regulation will tighten, with EU’s AI Act and U.S. AI Bill of Rights setting global standards.
    By Ernie

    Sources:

  28. Too early40% of enterprise applications will use task-specific AI agents by 2026 (up from 5% in 2025).Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Gartner's August 26, 2025 press release forecast that 40% of enterprise applications would feature task-specific AI agents by end-2026, up from under 5% in 2025; no Gartner measurement of the actual 2026 share of enterprise applications with embedded agents was found as of October 12, 2026. Closest proxies: Gartner survey data cited in 2026 that only 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents (60%+ planning to within two years), and McKinsey's State of AI 2026 (Sept 1, 2026) reporting AI-agent deployment at 40% of large ($1B+) companies (up from 27%) and 22% of smaller ones. Gartner on Sept 29, 2026 also predicted 70% of enterprises will abandon agentic AI built by vendor forward-deployed engineering by 2028.

    repeats Gartner

    Original words: Gartner predicts 40% of enterprise applications will leverage task-specific AI agents by 2026, up from 5% in 2025.
    By Claude

    Sources:

  29. Too earlyOpenAI revenue is projected to reach $100B by 2027.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2027

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate was reported at about $25B at end of February 2026 (vs $21.4B at end-2025), and Reuters/Bloomberg-sourced reports in late September/early October 2026 put it near $70B, up >70% since early July (unaudited, anonymous-source figures). Full-year 2026 recognized revenue is projected far lower than the run rate (one cited internal projection ~$29.4B). Sam Altman has reportedly floated $100B revenue by 2027; the deadline (end-2027) has not passed and no 2027 actuals exist.

    Original words: | OpenAI | ~$13B ARR | ~$500B | $100B projected by 2027 |
    By Claude

    Sources:

  30. Too early70% of organizations will use autonomous AI agents by 2026.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: There is no direct measurement of '70% of organizations using autonomous AI agents' in 2026. Gartner's 2026 CIO survey (reported mid-2026) found only 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents, with 42% planning to within 12 months and a further 22% within 24 months; Gartner places agentic AI at the Peak of Inflated Expectations. A separate Gartner survey (Sept-Oct 2025) found only 15% of IT application leaders were considering, piloting or deploying fully autonomous agents. Gartner also forecasts 40% of enterprise applications will include task-specific agents by end-2026.

    repeats Gartner

    Original words: Gartner forecasts 70% of organizations will use autonomous AI agents by 2026
    By Claude

    Sources:

  31. Too earlyMeta will release Llama 5 in 2026.Claude · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No model branded 'Llama 5' confirmed by Meta was found as of October 12, 2026; mainstream coverage (TechCrunch's Llama explainer, CNBC) still lists Llama 4 (April 2025) as the latest Llama generation. On April 8, 2026 Meta Superintelligence Labs launched Muse Spark, a proprietary model, and in August 2026 Meta released an open-weight model called Muse Glimmer and said an open-weight version of Muse Spark 1.2 would follow in coming weeks. Several low-credibility aggregator sites claim a '600B Llama 5' release in April 2026, but these are not corroborated by Meta or major outlets.

    Original words: Llama 5 (Meta)
    By Claude

    Sources:

  32. Too earlyThe multimodal AI market will grow from $3.3B in 2025 to nearly $94B by 2035.Meta · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2035

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The 2035 target cannot be measured as of October 2026. Analyst estimates of the 2025 multimodal AI market base vary: about $2.2B (The Business Research Company, $2.83B in 2026), $2.6B (P&S Intelligence, to $23.3B by 2032 at 36.8% CAGR), and $3.09B (to $52.87B by 2034 at 37.1% CAGR). These current forecasts are lower than the ~$94B-by-2035 trajectory cited in the prediction.

    Original words: the whole sector is projected to surge from $3.3 billion in 2025 to nearly $94 billion by 2035.
    By Meta

    Sources:

  33. Too earlyMore than 30% of enterprise apps will embed multimodal agents by 2026.Meta · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No direct 2026 measurement of the share of enterprise applications embedding multimodal agents was found as of October 12, 2026. The closest benchmark is Gartner's forecast (Aug 26, 2025) that 40% of enterprise apps would feature task-specific AI agents by end-2026 (from under 5% in 2025), which does not specify multimodality and has not yet been measured. Proxies: McKinsey State of AI 2026 (Sept 1, 2026) found agent deployment at 40% of large companies and 22% of smaller ones; Gartner-cited 2026 data put organizations with deployed agents at 17%.

    Original words: with more than 30 % of enterprise apps expected to embed multimodal agents by 2026.
    By Meta

    Sources:

  34. Too earlyGlobal AI spending will grow from $307B in 2025 to $632B by 2028.Meta · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2028

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Gartner (January 15, 2026) forecast worldwide AI spending of $2.52 trillion in 2026 (+44% YoY), raised in May 2026 to $2.59 trillion (+47%), with infrastructure over 45% of the total. These figures use a much broader definition than the $307B (2025) baseline cited by VC Cafe (an IDC-style AI solutions figure), so they are not directly comparable; no 2028 actuals exist yet.

    repeats VC Cafe

    Original words: VC Cafe notes $307 billion in global AI spending this year, projected to balloon to $632 billion by 2028.
    By Meta

    Sources:

  35. Too early82% of firms plan to embed AI agents by 2026.Meta · USAForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No survey directly measures the '82% of firms embedding agents by 2026' figure (which was a plan/intention statistic). Closest 2026 measures: KPMG's Q2 2026 AI Pulse reported enterprise AI agent deployment rising from 23% to 56% in one quarter; Gartner's 2026 CIO survey found 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents and 64% planned to within two years; McKinsey's State of AI (Nov 2025) found 62% experimenting with agents but only 23% scaling them in at least one function. Results vary widely by definition of 'agent' and 'deployed'.

    Original words: Agentic AI – 82 % of firms plan to embed agents by 2026;
    By Meta

    Sources:

  36. Too earlyAGI will arrive by 2026 (claim attributed to Altman and Musk).Kimi · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: There is no agreed definition or independent test of AGI, so its arrival cannot be measured directly. After OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra (public September 4, 2026), OpenAI President Greg Brockman said it was 'not unreasonable to feel that we are now in the AGI era' while describing AGI as a 'mission concept' rather than a contractual trigger; on August 27, 2026 Sam Altman said 'by the end of 2026, we will have an internal system that we call AGI'. Other leaders disagree: Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind) has said AGI is still years away, while Musk and Dario Amodei have predicted systems by end-2026.

    repeats Sam Altman, Elon Musk

    Original words: AGI Timing: Claims of "AGI by 2026" (Altman, Musk) vs. more pessimistic views. If AGI emerges, all rankings become obsolete overnight.
    By Kimi

    Sources:

  37. Too earlyEU AI Act implementation in 2026 may reshape the AI model market.Kimi · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: EU AI Act general-purpose AI obligations have applied since August 2, 2025; Amazon, Anthropic, Google, IBM, Microsoft, OpenAI, Mistral and Aleph Alpha signed the GPAI Code of Practice, xAI signed only the safety chapter, and Meta declined. Under the Digital Omnibus, EU institutions provisionally agreed on May 7, 2026 to postpone high-risk system obligations from August 2026 to December 2, 2027 (standalone) and August 2, 2028 (embedded). No quantitative study found measuring a 2026 reshaping of the AI model market attributable to the Act.

    Original words: EU AI Act implementation in 2026 may reshape market.
    By Kimi

    Sources:

  38. Too earlyIn 2026 global AI regulation will tighten, with the U.S., EU and China agreeing on basic AI ethical standards.Ernie · ChinaForecast made Nov 29, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No trilateral US-EU-China agreement on AI ethical standards has been found as of October 2026. US and Chinese officials discussed frontier-AI guardrails at the May 14-15, 2026 Beijing summit and agreed to keep talking about a best-practices protocol against misuse by non-state actors, without a binding agreement. Meanwhile regulation moved in different directions: the EU agreed on May 7, 2026 (Digital Omnibus) to postpone AI Act high-risk obligations to December 2027/August 2028, and the US administration pursued federal preemption of state AI laws (EO 14365, Dec 11, 2025; National AI Policy Framework, Mar 20, 2026).

    Original words: Global AI regulation will tighten, with U.S., EU, and China agreeing on basic ethical standards.
    By Ernie

    Sources:

  39. Came trueIn 2026 no single model will be the best for every task.Gemini · USAForecast made Nov 28, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Leaderboards in 2026 show a crowded frontier: in the July-August 2026 LMArena snapshots, Claude Opus 4.8 led text and coding, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and Opus 4.7 close behind, and the Elo gap between #1 and #10 was about 28 points, largely within noise. Separate arenas (text, coding, vision, etc.) and cost/latency trade-offs lead commentators to recommend choosing models by task (e.g. Claude for coding, ChatGPT for voice/image, Gemini for multimodal, open-weight models for self-hosting). 'Best for every task' is not formally measured; the evidence is leaderboard dispersion.

    Original words: Looking ahead into 2026, the rational strategy is model-agnosticism. There is no single “best” model for everything:
    By Gemini

    Sources:

  40. PartlyCompanies will continue migrating from GPT-4-class APIs to open-weights Llama 4 and Qwen 3 in 2026.Gemini · USAForecast made Nov 28, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2026

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: An Enterprise Technology Research survey (September 2026, ~200 respondents) found open-weight models handle 34% of enterprise AI token usage, up from 23% a year earlier; 42% of respondents run open-weight models in production, and 60% of those have moved some workloads off proprietary APIs, while 93% say proprietary usage keeps growing. Google's Gemma overtook Meta's Llama as the most deployed open-weight family in that survey (Llama production use fell from 55% to 35% since July), and Qwen has the largest derivative ecosystem (>151,000 derived repos). So migration toward open weights is measured, but the leading families shifted away from Llama 4 specifically.

    Original words: More and more companies are migrating from GPT-4-class APIs to Llama 4 and Qwen 3 to gain:
    By Gemini

    Sources:

  41. Too earlyAI-related capital expenditure will reach $2.8 trillion by 2029.ChatGPT · USAForecast made Nov 28, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2029

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Citigroup raised its forecast in late September 2025 to more than $2.8 trillion of cumulative Big Tech AI infrastructure spending through 2029 (from $2.3T), with hyperscaler AI capex of about $490B in 2026. In 2026 the four largest hyperscalers (Amazon ~$200B, Microsoft ~$190B, Alphabet $180-190B, Meta $125-145B) guided to roughly $700-725B of combined 2026 capex, up ~77% from ~$410B in 2025, and Wall Street expects 2027 capex above $1 trillion. The 2029 cumulative total cannot be measured until 2029; current run-rates are above Citi's 2026 interim estimate.

    repeats Citigroup

    Original words: Citigroup estimating $2.8 trillion in AI-related capex by 2029.
    By ChatGPT

    Sources:

  42. Too earlyAI will add up to $20 trillion of additional value to the U.S. economy over the next decade.ChatGPT · USAForecast made Nov 28, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2035

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The $20 trillion figure comes from a Goldman Sachs analysis reported in November 2025, estimating widespread AI adoption could add about $20 trillion of value to the US economy (including ~$8 trillion of capital income) and lift US labor productivity ~15% over roughly a decade. The window runs to about 2035, so the outcome cannot be measured as of October 2026; only early indicators exist (e.g., heavy AI capex such as Amazon's ~$98B H1 2026 capex).

    repeats Goldman Sachs

    Original words: Goldman Sachs argues that the AI boom is “barely begun,” projecting up to $20 trillion of additional value for the U.S. economy alone over the next decade.
    By ChatGPT

    Sources:

  43. Too earlyThe AI market will reach about $1 trillion by 2031, growing 26.6% annually.Grok · USAForecast made Nov 28, 2025 · deadline Dec 31, 2031

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The target year is 2031, so the outcome cannot be measured yet. Market-research estimates diverge widely by definition: Fortune Business Insights sizes the AI market at ~$376B in 2026 growing 26.6% CAGR to ~$2.48T by 2034; MarketsandMarkets (June 2026) estimates ~$602B in 2026 rising to ~$3.64T by 2033 (29.3% CAGR); SkyQuest projects ~$2.36T by 2031. Several current forecasts therefore put the market above $1T before 2031.

    Original words: 26.6% annual growth pushing AI toward a $1T market by 2031
    By Grok

    Sources:

  44. Too earlyGPT-5.1/OpenAI's relative dominance could weaken within 1–2 years due to privacy regulation and strong open alternatives.Grok · USAForecast made Nov 28, 2025 · deadline Nov 30, 2027

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: As of October 2026 the evidence on OpenAI's relative position is mixed: Anthropic leads in several enterprise measures (Ramp AI Index Aug/Sep 2026: 43.8% of businesses paying Anthropic vs 39.8% OpenAI; Menlo late-2025: ~40% vs 27% of enterprise API spend), while WSJ-reported OpenRouter data show OpenAI's coding/productivity traffic share rising from under 25% to almost 50% during 2026. Open-weight models grew strongly in usage (Vercel AI Gateway: 11% to 62% of token volume April–August 2026). On regulation, the EU's Digital Omnibus (in force July 27, 2026) deferred AI Act high-risk obligations to Dec 2027/Aug 2028; no regulatory action specifically curbing OpenAI's market position was found. The prediction window runs to November 2027.

    Original words: However, regulatory scrutiny on data privacy and a surge of powerful open alternatives could weaken its relative dominance within 1–2 years.
    By Grok

    Sources:

  45. Too earlyGemini's OS integrations may solidify its dominance among mainstream users in the next 1–2 years.Grok · USAForecast made Nov 28, 2025 · deadline Nov 30, 2027

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The Gemini app grew from >750M monthly active users at the start of 2026 to >900M at Google I/O (May 2026) and passed 1 billion MAU in August 2026, per Google. In January 2026 Apple agreed to license a custom Gemini model to power a rebuilt Siri, and at WWDC (June 8, 2026) Apple presented Apple Foundation Models built with Gemini for iOS 27. Third-party traffic data show ChatGPT still leads but its share fell (Similarweb: ~61.7% of AI web traffic in Feb 2026 vs 75.7% a year earlier; Gemini ~24%); the 1–2 year window runs to late 2027.

    Original words: Conversely, OS integrations may solidify dominance in the next 1–2 years for mainstream users.
    By Grok

    Sources:

  46. Too earlyLlama 4 could become the default efficiency standard for many workloads in the next 1–2 years.Grok · USAForecast made Nov 28, 2025 · deadline Nov 30, 2027

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Llama 4 (released April 2025) received mixed-to-poor reviews and did not gain broad enterprise adoption. On Hugging Face, Alibaba's Qwen surpassed Llama in cumulative downloads by September 2025, and by March 2026 Qwen had ~942.1M downloads versus Llama's ~476.0M. Reports in late 2025 said Meta was using Qwen models in training its next model ('Avocado'), and Chinese open-weight models (Qwen, DeepSeek V4) dominate open-weight usage discussions in 2026. The deadline (Nov 2027) has not passed.

    Original words: Could become the default efficiency standard for many workloads in the next 1–2 years.
    By Grok

    Sources:

How it is counted

  • Only forecasts with a date or a clear year are taken, word for word; vague wishes without a date are left out, and so are forecasts about elections, wars, sanctions and rivalry between countries.
  • Every forecast that is «too early» or «partly» is checked again once a month and right after its deadline. Each check is kept with its date; nothing is erased.
  • Some AIs repeated other people's forecasts (Gartner, Altman, governments); the card says whose. They count for the AI that chose to repeat them. Forecasts with a deadline after 2026 stay «too early».