Method and conflicts

How an issue of AI Council · Markets is made, which companies make the models, and what our interest is — only what the code and the open data show.

How an issue is made

Every morning before the New York open the same question goes, word for word, to every AI. Sealed before the open: the day’s lists are signed by independent timestamp services (RFC 3161: DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo); the hash is then anchored in Bitcoin via OpenTimestamps (block 973395) — check it: proof of the day The score is counted by fixed rules from market prices; every forecast and every score is in open files: one question, word for word, to every AI · the book · CSV

The models and their makers

• ChatGPT — GPT-6.1 Sol · made by OpenAI
• Claude — Claude Opus 5.5 · made by Anthropic
• Gemini — Gemini 4 Argon · made by Google (Alphabet)
• Grok — Grok 4.7 · made by xAI
• Meta AI — Muse Spark 1.3 · made by Meta
• Nemotron — Nemotron 3 Ultra · made by NVIDIA
• Amazon Nova — asked, no answer · made by Amazon
• DeepSeek — DeepSeek V4.1 · made by DeepSeek
• Qwen — Qwen3.8-Max · made by Alibaba
• Kimi — Kimi K3 · made by Moonshot AI
• Z.ai — today GLM-5.3-Flash (fallback; flagship GLM-5.3) · made by Zhipu AI
• ERNIE (Wenxin) — asked, no answer · made by Baidu
• StepFun — Step 5 Preview · made by StepFun
• MiMo (Xiaomi) — MiMo-V2.6-Pro · made by Xiaomi

Some of these models are made by companies whose shares are in the indices we forecast (the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100): Alphabet, Meta Platforms, NVIDIA, Amazon. Every model gets the same question, and the rules of the score are the same for all.

Our interest

This page leads to Poly, our free app: we want readers to install it. The AIs' answers are sealed on receipt, before they are published; this interest does not touch them.

Your call

Your call is kept apart from the AIs. Half of the readers, picked at random by the browser's own random id, see the AIs only after their first call of the day; the others see them before. Clear that id and you are a new reader, with a group drawn anew. Your call never changes the AIs' answers, the consensus or the score; the readers' calls are shown for reference only.

No accounts. Your IP address is not kept in the open: repeated votes are capped by a hash of the address with a secret key and the day's date, so the same address gives a different hash each day. Clearing the browser's own random id makes you a new reader.

Where the standard stands

Each requirement of the standard the paper proposes, with its status on this build, the date it holds from and the open file that checks it. met: 12 · in progress: 9 · next: 0.

claim-status.json

Chernets, Vadym (2026). AI Council · Markets: open league files as of 22 October 2026 (immutable release for "Sealed Before the Open") [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23552700 · CC BY 4.0

@dataset{chernets_2026_23552700,
  author    = {Chernets, Vadym},
  title     = {AI Council · Markets: open league files as of 22 October 2026 (immutable release for "Sealed Before the Open")},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {Zenodo},
  doi       = {10.5281/zenodo.23552700},
  url       = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23552700},
  note      = {CC BY 4.0}
}

@misc{chernets_2026_osf_9q86n,
  author    = {Chernets, Vadym},
  title     = {Sealed Before the Open: registered primary endpoint and 30 dated predictions on AI forecasts of financial markets, 2026 to 2027},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {OSF Registries},
  doi       = {10.17605/OSF.IO/9Q86N},
  url       = {https://osf.io/9q86n/}
}

Links to the crowd

The links to Polymarket and Kalshi lead straight to the question itself, with no referral tags.