Oct 16, 2026New trend twice a day

Trend of the day · ChinaChina

Pistachios are running out in China, and stores now limit how many you buy

Pistachios are rationed, not gone: buy only what you'll use, skip resellers, and expect high prices until autumn 2027.

USA7.66:China7.31

average of its strongest AIs · today's answers, scored out of 10 by other AIs acting as judges — not who will guess the future← Previous trend: College athletes get their own studio on campus to stream live online

Forecast before the AIs ↓

All answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

What does this pistachio shortage mean for shoppers, snack makers and stores in China and around the world, and how long could it last? What should people like the readers of this page do now: buy in advance, wait, or switch to other nuts and snacks (source)?

In plain words: Costco — an American members-only warehouse store chain; Sam's Club — Walmart's members-only warehouse store chain; Jiemian — a Chinese business news website; 10jqka — a Chinese stock and finance news website; Dubai chocolate — a pistachio-filled chocolate bar that went viral online; Three Squirrels — China's biggest packaged nut and snack brand; Weibo — a big Chinese social network, like Twitter; mini-program — a small shopping app inside WeChat

Pistachios are rationed, not gone: buy only what you'll use, skip resellers, and expect high prices until autumn 2027.

What to do

Skip resellers: a resold Sam's bag at 125 yuan costs as much per kilo as Costco's.

A club-store bag that cost 119.9 yuan now costs 149.9: buy only what you'll eat, and never from resellers.

Who should do what

Shoppers: This weekend, Oct 17–18, buy one bag at shelf price only if you'll eat it soon; otherwise switch nuts.
Café and bakery owners: By Oct 23, lock a supplier price or cut pistachio items to fewer days.

What not to do: Don't check out on your card for strangers: you can lose your own quota for a month.

Prices rose and rationing started, but shelves are not empty. A resold Sam's bag at 125 yuan costs the same per kilo as Costco's own shelf price. Sam's own bag at 99.9 yuan for 1.13 kg is the cheapest per kilo.

Relief is slow: the big crop is due in autumn 2027. Prices will likely stay firm through Lunar New Year. Buy a bag this weekend only if you need pistachios for a gift or recipe; if you just snack, wait or switch to almonds, cashews or walnuts.

Cafés and bakeries should decide now. If pistachio items sell well, lock a supplier price this week. If they don't, shrink the menu or blend in cheaper nuts.

This is what most AIs advise. Each AI explains it in its own words below.

What the world's leading AIs think

They agree: Most agree: a real supply shortage, with full relief only after the 2027 crop.
They split: Z.ai hopes for easing by December; Kimi and DeepSeek say not before 2027.
Not obvious: Per kilo, a resold 125-yuan Sam's bag costs the same as Costco's shelf price.
What to watch: If club bag limits are still in place in December, the 2027 timeline holds.
Only one AI: Only ChatGPT: China's pistachio prices per 100 g stayed stable since 2023.

Read in full

Most of the ten agree this is a real supply shortage, not a store trick. California's 2026 crop is about half of last year's record 1.6 billion pounds, after March heat hurt pollination. Iran's supply is also squeezed, and viral Dubai chocolate keeps pulling nuts into desserts and drinks. China imports over 95% of its pistachios, so the shock reaches shelves fast: bag limits at Sam's Club and Costco, and resellers adding 20–30 yuan a bag.

The sharpest split is duration. Most put real relief at the fall 2027 crop, forecast above 1.9 billion pounds, and expect firm prices through Lunar New Year. Z.ai thinks the small new crop reaching China in November and December may ease prices a little. Two answers pointed to relief after November 1 or in early 2027, and the judges marked these as unsupported.

Answers also differ on scope. ChatGPT warns this is not a shortage of all nuts, and that wider nut prices barely moved. Claude found that a resold Sam's bag at 125 yuan equals Costco's shelf price per kilo, about 110 yuan. Small dessert shops are hit hardest: one Nanjing gelato maker cut pistachio days from four or five a week to one or two.

The practical line across answers is selective buying. Use your member ration only for a real holiday need, never pay resellers, and switch to almonds, cashews or walnuts for everyday snacking.

They split: Z.ai hopes for easing by December; Kimi and DeepSeek say not before 2027.
What settles the dispute: Whether prices fall after the November–December new-crop shipments will show who is right.

The AIs from the USA and China broadly agree; China's AIs lean more on the 2027 crop.

What is confirmed and what is not

The AIs' conclusion California's 2026 pistachio crop is about half of 2025's 1.6 billion pounds
The AIs' conclusion China imports over 95% of its pistachios
Not known yet Prices return to normal only after the fall 2027 crop

The AIs cited 41 sources

Ask any AI yourself

I use pistachios for baking. Should I buy a bag at the store price now or wait until 2027?

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Resellers and big chains gain; small dessert shops and pistachio lovers pay more.

The final answer, written by an AI

Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Tap an answer to read it.

1ClaudeUSA8.8A scalper's Sam's Club pistachio bag now costs the same per kilo as Costco's
Pistachios in China are now a scarce item, and stores are rationing them. This will likely last into the Lunar New Year season, and possibly longer. Costco's own customer service says it cannot predict when prices will fall (news.10jqka.com.cn). Traders expect prices to stay firm through the year-end holiday buying (news.pedaily.cn). The roots of the shortage are slow to fix.
More than 95% of China's pistachios are imported, mainly from the US and Iran (news.pedaily.cn). One California grower said about 60% of his nuts were empty shells (jiemian.com), and one market report expects California's crop to come in at roughly half of last year's (commodity-board.com).
The surprise is in the per-kilo math. Sam's Club still charges 99.9 yuan for 1.13 kg (news.pedaily.cn), which works out to about 88 yuan a kilo. Costco's 149.9 yuan for 1.36 kg is about 110 yuan a kilo. A scalper's Sam's bag at 125 yuan (finance.sina.cn) costs the same per kilo as Costco's.
Small food shops feel this most. A gelato maker in Nanjing saw shelled pistachios jump from 69.9 to 109.9 yuan per 500 g in August, and cut his pistachio flavour from four or five days a week to one or two (news.pedaily.cn). A nut seller with 18 years in the trade now pays 70 yuan per jin (half a kilo), against about 50 a year ago.
She is not restocking because she fears customers will balk (news.pedaily.cn). Brands keep adding demand even so: Pepsi launched a pistachio-chocolate cola and Starbucks a pistachio latte (jiemian.com). Outside China, prices are rising too. Wholesale prices in India rose by up to 100 rupees a kilo before the festival season (cropgpt.ai).
The Chicago wholesale market reported thin supplies of every nut on October 15 (indexbox.io). One possible relief: China put US pistachios on a tariff-cut list in late September (jiemian.com).
Shoppers should decide this weekend, Saturday October 17 or Sunday October 18. If you will eat a bag within a few months, buy one at the store price, choosing Sam's 99.9-yuan bag first. If not, wait, and don't pay resellers 125 yuan or more. Also, don't check out on your card for strangers.
Store limits count per member, so you could lose your own quota for a month (jiemian.com). If you mainly want a nut snack, switch to almonds, cashews or mixed nuts for now. Cafés and bakeries should lock in a supplier price now if pistachio items sell well. If they don't, shrink the pistachio menu the way the Nanjing gelato shop did.
Sources
Its own forecast: Sam's Club mainland China raises its own-brand 1.13-kilogram pistachio bag above 99.9 yuan — 40% chance by Dec 15, 2026
2Z.aiChina8.1California farmers find 60% of their pistachios are empty shells
The pistachio squeeze hitting Chinese shoppers is a price-and-rationing shock, not an empty-shelf crisis — yet. Costco China pushed its 1.36-kg salted-roast bag from 119.9 to 149.9 yuan in five days, Sam's Club caps each member at two 1.13-kg bags per 30 days, and resellers add 20-30 yuan per bag on top.
The cause is global: a March heat wave in California's San Joaquin Valley cut the 2026 US crop to 700-800 million pounds, less than half of last year's record 1.6 billion, while viral 'Dubai chocolate' keeps pulling kernels into cream, drinks and desserts.
The ripple changes things for snack makers, cafés and grocers far beyond China. Starbucks, Pepsi, Domino's, Heytea and DQ have all launched pistachio-flavored products in the past year, China's Three Squirrels has already raised prices twice, and Iran — the other big global source — is pinched by renewed US-Iran tension.
California growers face about $800 million in losses across 337,000 damaged acres, and the late-September US-pistachio tariff cut helps only at the margin while the nuts themselves are short.
Shoppers, today is Friday October 16, 2026: if you host, bake or gift pistachios for winter holidays, buy your two-bag ration this week before the November rush; if you just snack on them, wait, because the new California crop reaches China in November and December and may ease prices.
Skip the scalpers — they charge 20-30 yuan more for a product that is rationed, not gone. If price still bites, swap to almonds, cashews or roasted edamame, which are not in shortage.
Sources
Its own forecast: By January 15, 2027, at least one of Sam's Club or Costco in mainland China has publicly removed or relaxed its pistachio purchase limit, per its app or a Chinese news report. — 30% chance by Jan 15, 2027
3ChatGPTUSA8.0Costco pistachios jumped 25%, yet China's wider nut prices barely moved
Skip panic buying: China's pistachio squeeze could last months, but it does not mean every nut or snack will become scarce. Costco's reported increase from 119.9 to 149.9 yuan is 25%, while Chinese retail monitoring found pistachio prices per 100 grams broadly stable between 2023 and 2026, despite increases in July–September 2026 (jiemian.com; weibo.com).
The deeper problem may outlast the online craze: California's 2026 harvest forecast was roughly 800 million pounds, compared with 1.6 billion pounds harvested in 2025, making sustained pressure into 2027 plausible, though not certain (freshfruitportal.com).
For chocolate makers, bakeries and snack brands, the decision is whether to accept lower profits, charge more or offer different fillings; these are potential responses rather than confirmed industry-wide changes. Starbucks and Pepsi have already introduced pistachio-flavored products in China, showing that demand extends beyond bags of nuts (jiemian.com).
Stores face a different problem: rationing protects access for ordinary members but may also create opportunities for resellers, who have reportedly earned 20–30 yuan per bag (jiemian.com).
Outside China, shoppers may face similar price pressure because California's crop problems affect international supplies, although local retail shortages have not been established everywhere (kvpr.org).
Compare prices, shoppers, on October 16: if pistachios are a regular favorite and available at your normal price, buy a modest supply; if prices are inflated, wait or choose almonds, peanuts or walnuts. Avoid paying resellers a premium: Sam's Club's reported 99.9-yuan price for 1.13 kilograms is about 88 yuan per kilogram, compared with roughly 110 yuan per kilogram for Costco's 149.9-yuan bag (jiemian.com; weibo.com).
Snack makers should review costs and alternative recipes from October 16 rather than assume prices will quickly return to normal; California's weather damage and the approaching supply season make an exact recovery date impossible to verify (freshfruitportal.com).
Sources
Its own forecast: By November 13, 2026, at least one new Chinese news article will report that Sam's Club's own-brand 1.13-kilogram pistachio bag still has a purchase limit of two bags per member per 30 days. — 66% chance by Nov 13, 2026
4DeepSeekChina7.7China imports 95% of its pistachios; the 2027 crop is the real rescue
Shoppers in China face two new rules at the till: Sam's Club limits each member to two bags of its own-brand pistachios every 30 days, and Costco in Zhejiang cut its limit to two bags every seven days, with resellers flipping bags online for 20–30 yuan more¹. Costco's 1.36-kilogram bag of salted roasted pistachios rose from 119.9 to 149.9 yuan in five days².
The cause is a double squeeze: California's heat wave cut its crop roughly in half, and Iran's output fell about 42 percent amid conflict, pushing global production down 36 percent for the 2026/27 season³. China buys more than 95 percent of its pistachios from abroad, mainly the US and Iran, so the pain arrives fast⁴.
Snack makers and bakery owners feel it worse than shoppers. A gelato shop owner in Nanjing saw pistachio kernels jump from 69.9 to 109.9 yuan per 500 grams in August, a 40-yuan leap he called unprecedented⁵.
The food industry has already shifted about 10 percent of its pistachio use to cheaper peanuts and walnuts, with almonds, cashews and pumpkin seeds as backup options⁶. For stores, the limits are a way to stop hoarders and keep shelves from going completely empty, but they also push buyers toward resellers and secondhand apps.
Shoppers should buy one bag this weekend if they need pistachios for a specific holiday gift or recipe; otherwise, wait or switch. The 2027 California harvest is projected to rebound above 1.9 billion pounds, and industry expects prices to return to normal only after the fall 2027 crop⁷.
People with a mortgage or a tight grocery budget can try almonds, cashews or walnuts now — they are cheaper and already proven substitutes in snacks and desserts⁸.
Sources
Its own forecast: At least one of Costco or Sam's Club in mainland China will announce a further tightening of its pistachio purchase limit or a price increase above its October 2026 level, as reported by a Chinese news outlet. — 65% chance by Nov 15, 2026
5KimiChina7.6Empty shells in California may keep prices high until 2027
This is a real supply squeeze, not just a reseller stunt: China depends heavily on imported pistachios, California's 2026 crop was hit by bloom-time heat, and Iran trade is also disrupted, while Dubai-chocolate demand keeps pulling kernels into desserts and drinks.
For ordinary shoppers, expect club shelves to be patchy and marked up around holidays; snack makers face costlier kernels and may use smaller pistachio portions, blends, or limited runs, while stores must police limits as resellers hunt 20-30 yuan gaps. The likely relief is not days away: California growers still promise shelves stay stocked, but say price pressure can run until the fall 2027 crop returns closer to normal.
Buy, snack fans, one or two bags today, Friday Oct. 16, only if pistachios are a must for the holiday table; if not, wait, set an in-app restock alert, or switch to almonds, cashews, hazelnuts, peanuts, or mixed nuts for everyday snacking. Do not pay scalpers more than the shelf price; the same money buys two ordinary nut bags this week, and buying panic only feeds the flip.
Sources
Its own forecast: By 2026-11-15, at least one Chinese national business or food outlet will quote a snack, dessert, or retail operator saying pistachio costs are still high enough to cut menu frequency, portions, or holiday stock. — 65% chance by Nov 15, 2026

6GrokUSA7.2Resellers pocket 28 yuan while members face bag limits
Shoppers in China now pay more and face tight limits on popular pistachio bags at Costco and Sam’s Club. A 1.36-kilogram bag jumped from 119.9 to 149.9 yuan in five days, while Sam’s 1.13-kilogram bag sits at 99.9 yuan with a two-bag cap every 30 days, and resellers add 20–30 yuan or more online. Everyday bulk snacking gets costlier and harder until new supply arrives.
Snack makers and stores that rely on pistachios for Dubai-style chocolates, new drinks, or baked goods will see higher raw costs and may raise retail prices or cut back on pistachio versions. Warehouse clubs must keep rationing stock to stop bulk buying, while importers watch California’s smaller crop and any further tariff relief on U.S. nuts.
Check the Costco or Sam’s app today, Friday October 16, if you already hold a membership and want bags at the listed price; if the app shows sold-out or a reseller markup looks high, skip the extra cost and switch to almonds or mixed nuts until limits loosen.
Sources
Its own forecast: Sam's Club China will list its 1.13-kilogram Member's Mark pistachios above 99.9 yuan — 45% chance by Nov 5, 2026
7MetaUSA6.7California grows 99% of US pistachios, harvest halved to 800 million pounds
This is not a store trick, it is a real shortage that will hit your wallet through winter. California grows 99% of America's pistachios and its 2026 crop fell to about 800 million pounds from 1.6 billion last year after heat broke pollination, while TikTok's Dubai chocolate pushed world demand up about 30%.
In China that means Sam's now caps its 1.13-kilo Member's Mark bag at 2 per 30 days and Costco in Zhejiang caps at 2 per 7 days, with Costco's 1.36-kilo bag jumping from 119.9 to 149.9 yuan in five days and street sellers adding 20 to 30 yuan on top.
Snack shops and cafes feel it harder than families. Owners who make pistachio ice cream saw kernel prices leap from 69.9 to 109.9 yuan per 500 grams in August, and big chains from Starbucks pistachio lattes to Pepsi pistachio chocolate cola now chase the same nuts, so world market value of 5.489 billion dollars in 2026 faces tight supply. Stores keep limits to share stock, not to punish you.
Buy shoppers this Friday October 16: if you need pistachios for gifts or New Year, use your member quota now at the official price and skip resellers; if you can wait, hold off until after the new US harvest lands in early 2027 and try almonds or cashews instead. Limits will stay while scalpers charge 28 yuan extra for bulk.
Sources
Its own forecast: Sam's Club China app still shows limit of 2 bags per 30 days or 'restocking' for Member's Mark 1.13kg salted pistachios — 72% chance by Nov 1, 2026
8WenxinChina5.9Dubai chocolate fuels global nut crunch
For regular shoppers, the shortage means stricter purchase limits, frequent out-of-stock notices, and resellers marking bags up 20 to 30 yuan online. Many popular family-sized packs no longer sit fully stocked on big-box store shelves.
Snack makers and grocery chains now face far higher raw nut costs, with no quick way to fill the gap left by reduced California harvests and surging global Dubai chocolate demand. Smaller bakeries and dessert shops that rely on pistachio fillings are already scrambling to lock in limited stock before prices rise further.
Pick your move today: if you eat pistachios every week, grab one bag while stock lasts; if you only snack on them occasionally, swap to cashews or almonds for the next month. The crunch will not ease fast enough to beat current price hikes.
Sources
Its own forecast: Both Sam's Club and Costco will extend their current pistachio purchase limits for at least another full month — 75% chance by Nov 15, 2026

China's first Costco opens to scenes of chaos

Rankings

Two Top 10 lists on this story: the AIs' answers merged into one list, with a reason and a link for each place.

Top Pistachio-Producing Countries by Harvest Risk

United States pistachio production1
Turkey pistachio production2
Italy pistachio production3
Syria pistachio production4
Australia pistachio production5

Full ranking

Why Are Pistachios So Expensive Now? Top 10 Markets

China1
Germany2
India3
Japan4
South Korea5

Full ranking

Forecast before the AIs

Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.

Will Costco China's big pistachio bag cost over 149.9 yuan next Friday?

Now: 149.9 yuan

We’ll know the answer on Oct 23, 2026

This question’s own page →

The result of the last question

Will Netflix's share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?

Result: «Yes»

6 of 10 AIs’ forecasts came true:

Meta AIKimiDeepSeekGeminiQwenZ.ai

Checked on: finance.yahoo.com

More to explore

Light sideThe chocolate bar that became a joke about trendsA tweet on April 17, 2025 started a joke: one long breathless sentence listing every trendy product.

Online, "Dubai chocolate" turned into a punchline. People string it together with Labubu, matcha and Stanley Cups in one huge sentence. The longer the list, the funnier the joke.

Dubai chocolate is a candy bar with a filling of pistachio cream, tahini and crunchy knafeh. Knafeh is a Middle Eastern dessert made from thin, buttery strands of phyllo dough. The bar became famous after a TikTok video in December 2023 got over 125 million views. By mid-2025 the name had also turned into a joke about people who chase every trend.

The original bar is called "Can't Get Knafeh Of It." It was made in 2022 by FIX Dessert Chocolatier in Dubai. Its maker, Sarah Hamouda, is a British Egyptian chocolatier. She was pregnant and wanted a treat that mixed her craving for knafeh with pistachio. The bar has a paint-splattered outside, and when you bite it, the cream oozes out and the knafeh crunches loudly. That makes it look and sound great on social media. Yezen Alani, a co-founder of FIX, told the BBC the world's attention was "flattering and humbling".

For about a year the bar was a local favorite in the UAE. Then in December 2023 the TikTok influencer Maria Vehera filmed herself eating it in her car. The chocolate cracked, the filling oozed out, and the crunch made a satisfying sound. The clip passed 125 million views.

The supply was tiny. FIX made only about 500 bars a day. They were sold only on the Deliveroo app in the UAE, at 14:00 and 17:00, and they sold out within minutes. Monique Naval, a senior research analyst at Euromonitor International, said the limited supply "creates a fear of missing out, further increasing interest and demand". The word Dubai also helped, because people link it with luxury and gold-dusted everything. Turkish food writer Aylin Öney Tan pointed to the texture. She said crunchy chocolates like Toblerone and Ferrero Rocher have always sold well, and this one goes "an extra mile" for sites like TikTok and Instagram.

Because the real bar was so hard to get, others stepped in. Lindt and the Turkish company Ülker made their own versions. In London, Maison Samadi, a chocolate maker with Lebanese roots going back to 1872, launched "Dubai Viral Style Chocolate". Nabil Chehab from the company told the BBC that demand "far exceeded their expectations".

By late 2024 the bars showed up at Christmas markets in Munich, on Lidl shelves in London, at flea markets in Mumbai and in sweet shops across Istanbul. The craze caused pistachio shortages around the world. These hit bakeries, ice cream makers and other food makers too. Supermarkets rationed the bars, and customs officers caught people smuggling them in luggage. Shake Shack and Starbucks both brought out limited-edition versions.

The Starbucks drink was a Dubai Chocolate Matcha Latte. It was a Grande Iced Matcha Latte with pistachio sauce and chocolate cold foam. It was never on the official menu. Customers ordered it as a custom drink, and it went viral in early 2025. Delish tried it and said the pistachio and matcha worked well together, but the drink could not copy the knafeh crunch. Euromonitor International followed the trend and saw it open new demand for Middle Eastern-style sweets. The BBC said it let people try a well-known dessert inside a chocolate shell.

Then came the backlash. On April 17, 2025, X user @gomenstruation mocked trend-chasers with a long tweet about a digicam, matcha, a Labubu on a carabiner and Japanese selvedge denim. It earned over 16,000 likes. This started a "slang overload" meme, where people pile up trendy words like Dubai chocolate, Labubu, matcha, Crumbl Cookies and Stanley Cups in one sentence.

On June 5, 2025, TikToker @poison_bf posted a video with the caption "I got my matcha, Dubai Chocolate, my Labubu, and my Murakami book. What should I get next, Mr. Algorithm". It got over 172,900 likes. Late in June, @yezzuurr_ reached 177,900 likes with a SpongeBob meme about a limited edition Dubai Chocolate Moonbeam Ice Cream Labubu flavored Crumbl Cookie with matcha in Weck Jars.

To make the joke, write a tweet or caption that lists 4 to 8 trendy things in one breathless sentence. The longer and sillier the list, the better. You can add a reaction image, like a running SpongeBob. The tone can be sincere, like asking the algorithm what to buy next, or mocking, like "Me and the boys getting...". Other spin-offs include price jokes, videos about how hard the bar is to find, comments on luxury and wealth gaps, home-made copies and fake "Dubai" chocolate parodies.

On Urban Dictionary, entries for Dubai chocolate moved from describing the bar to crude jokes and put-downs. The top entry is a crude sex joke, and another user called it "another stupid trend just like labubus". The page says that as of mid-2025 the real bar still caused stockouts and rationing, while the meme was still active on TikTok and Twitter.

Text and photos: meme.com · 17.04.2025 — original →

Talked about nowIs Dubai chocolate really to blame for the pistachio crunch?One UK nut expert calls the chocolate link "just a red herring" and says the two only happened together.

UK nuts expert Darren Cheshire says a harvest shortfall landed at the same time as the chocolate hype. He sees "no causality between them" (reported April 2025). (2025) Darren Cheshire, via Tasting Table
Another voice, Vittoria Calcagni of Besana, says world volume is actually higher than in 2023/24 because of Turkey and Iran. (2025) Vittoria Calcagni, via Tasting Table
A twist people raise: pistachio trees swing between big and small crops. California's record 2023/24 harvest may make later years look weak. (2025)
The other side: one trade report says the craze hit a market that was already shaky, with a 20% US supply gap and prices up from €6.65 to €8.96 a pound. (2025)

Dubai chocolate has gone far beyond its home. Shake Shack sells Dubai chocolate milkshakes, and Starbucks has a Dubai chocolate-inspired latte on its not-so-secret menu. The bar is filled with pistachios and knafeh. Some people now say its fame has caused a worldwide pistachio shortage.

The bar began with one small Emirati chocolate shop, Fix Dessert Chocolatier, which has locations in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In 2023, taste-test videos filled TikTok. Unless you live in the U.A.E., you have had to buy the bar online, often from other brands making their own versions. Now a short supply of its main ingredient may make the bars even harder to find.

Big chocolate makers such as Lindt and Läderach have joined the trend. There are also reports that Crumbl Cookies is working on its own Dubai-chocolate-inspired desserts. So demand for pistachios is higher than ever. The nuts grow mostly in the U.S., Turkey and Iran. Iran's pistachio exports rose 40% in the first six months of 2025 alone. Nut trader Giles Hacking of CG Hacking says the price went from $7.65 to $10.30 per pound in the last year.

Still, some experts think blaming the chocolate may just be bad timing. U.K. nuts and dried fruit expert Darren Cheshire told EuroFruit that the link is not real. "It's just a red herring," he said. "There is a general lack of supply from this harvest that became apparent at the same time as the hype around the Dubai chocolate bar, [but] there is no causality between them."

The article says the chocolate hype only adds to a shortage that was already coming. Pistachio trees in California follow an alternating cycle of big and small harvests, called alternate bearing. In 2023/24, the California harvest beat all records and predictions. Now the state's total supply is at its lowest in recent years, but yields have still trended upward overall.

Other parts of the world are doing well. Supplies from Turkey and Iran are much higher than in 2023/2024. Vittoria Calcagni, head of public affairs at the Italian dried fruit and nut company Besana, said: "If you look at the global data, thanks to Turkey and Iran, the total volume is higher than that of the year 2023/24."

Text and photos: tastingtable.com · 30.04.2025 — original →

You may have seen Dubai chocolate everywhere. Shake Shack sells Dubai chocolate milkshakes. Starbucks has a Dubai chocolate-style latte on a not-so-secret menu. The bars are filled with pistachio and knafeh, and they have spread far beyond Dubai. Some people now say the craze has caused a world shortage of pistachios.

The bar began with one small Emirati chocolate shop, Fix Dessert Chocolatier, which has stores in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In 2023, taste-test videos filled TikTok. Outside the U.A.E., most people have had to buy the bar online, often from other brands that make their own copies. Now a short supply of pistachios could make the bars even harder to find.

Big names have joined in. Lindt and Läderach make versions, and there are reports that Crumbl Cookies is working on its own Dubai-style treats. So demand for pistachios is higher than ever. The nuts grow mostly in the U.S., Turkey and Iran. Iran's pistachio exports rose 40% in the first six months of 2025. Nut trader Giles Hacking of CG Hacking says the price went from $7.65 to $10.30 per pound over the last year.

But some experts say the blame may be a matter of bad timing. Darren Cheshire, a nuts and dried fruit expert based in the U.K., told EuroFruit that the two things are not linked. "It's just a red herring" [Darren Cheshire]. He says supply from this harvest was short, and that became clear at the same time as the chocolate hype, but one did not cause the other.

The article explains that the hype may only be making an existing scarcity worse. California's pistachio crop swings between big years and small years. This is called alternate bearing. In 2023/24, the California harvest beat all records and all predictions. Now California's total supply is at its lowest in recent years, yet yields have generally trended upward.

California is also not the whole picture. Elsewhere, pistachio numbers are higher than ever, and supplies from Turkey and Iran are far above those reported for 2023/2024. Vittoria Calcagni, head of public affairs at the Italian dried fruit and nut company Besana, put it this way: "If you look at the global data, thanks to Turkey and Iran, the total volume is higher than that of the year 2023/24" [Vittoria Calcagni].

Text and photos: tastingtable.com · 30.04.2025 — original →

Dubai chocolate has gone far beyond Dubai. Shake Shack sells Dubai chocolate milkshakes. Starbucks has a Dubai chocolate-style latte that is not much of a secret on its menu. The bars are filled with pistachio and knafeh. Some people now say the craze has caused a worldwide pistachio shortage.

Before TikTok taste tests spread the bar in 2023, only one small Emirati maker sold it. That was Fix Dessert Chocolatier, with shops in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. People outside the U.A.E. have to order it online, often from other brands making their own versions. Now a short supply of pistachios, its key ingredient, may make the bars even harder to find.

Big names have joined in. Lindt and Läderach make Dubai-style chocolate, and Crumbl Cookies is reported to be working on its own treats. So demand for pistachios is higher than ever. The nuts come mainly from the U.S., Turkey and Iran. Iran's pistachio exports rose 40% in the first six months of 2025. Nut trader Giles Hacking of CG Hacking says the price went from $7.65 to $10.30 per pound over the last year.

Still, some experts say the chocolate may simply have arrived at the wrong moment. Darren Cheshire, a nuts and dried fruit expert in the U.K., told EuroFruit that blaming the bars is a red herring. He said supply was short in this harvest at the same time the bar became a hit, but one did not cause the other.

The reason is that pistachio trees follow an up-and-down pattern called alternate bearing. One year the harvest is big, and the next it is small. In 2023/24, California's harvest beat every record and every forecast. So the hype may only be making an already tight supply feel worse. California's total supplies are now at their lowest in recent years, but yields have generally been rising.

Other countries tell a different story. Supplies from Turkey and Iran are much higher than in 2023/2024. Vittoria Calcagni, head of public affairs at the Italian dried fruit and nut company Besana, said that globally, thanks to Turkey and Iran, the total volume is higher than in 2023/24.

Text and photos: tastingtable.com · 30.04.2025 — original →

A global shortage of pistachios is being blamed on the Dubai chocolate craze. The article, dated 24 April 2025, asks how bad things really are. The craze began on TikTok with a treat from Fix Dessert Chocolatier, which mixes pistachio with knafeh. It has led to many copycats and a rush to buy pistachios.

The price of the nut has jumped from €6.65 a pound last year to €8.96 this year. Growers and wholesalers cannot keep up with demand. The page says this is mostly because of a 20% supply shortage in the United States.

Demand is very strong. Iran, the second-largest producer in the world, sent 40% more pistachios to the UAE in the six months to March 2025 than in the same months a year earlier.

The page also says that pistachio supplies were unreliable even before the craze this year. The extra pull from chocolate makers around the world has now almost wiped out what is available.

Still, makers and shops keep chasing the trend with their own versions of the bar. Sellers in many countries now list pistachio-filled chocolates in different styles and at different prices. The bars sell out fast in supermarkets, and some shops limit how many a customer can buy at once.

The article ends with a question. Will the craze last, or will it fade like other food and drink trends and be remembered as a passing novelty?

Text and photos: bakeryandsnacks.com · 24.04.2025 — original →

NumbersPistachio shortage in six numbersSam's Club China sells its own pistachios only 2 bags per member every 30 days.

what	value	as of
Sam's Club China limit	2 bags per member per 30 days	2026-10-14
Costco Zhejiang limit (customer report)	2 bags per card per 7 days, down from 10	2026-10-14
Sam's 1.13 kg bag, shelf price	99.9 yuan (was 89)	2026-10-14
Reseller price for a Sam's bag	125 yuan	2026-10-14
California crop 2025 (record)	1.6 billion pounds	2026-08-05
California crop 2026 forecast	about 800 million pounds	2026-08-05

jiemian.com — original →

freshfruitportal.com — original →

Past monthHow the pistachio shortage unfolded over 30 daysImport tariff cuts met new beverage launches as club rationing began.

China placed American pistachios on its tariff reduction list, lowering import duties for incoming nut shipments.
Starbucks launched pistachio cream lattes and Pepsi debuted pistachio cola in China, driving up commercial demand for pistachio flavor.
Sam's Club and Costco confirmed temporary purchase rations in China to ensure shelf stock against wholesale bulk sweeps.

jiemian.com · 24.09 — original →

jiemian.com · 14.10 — original →

Previous trends

Latest trend →: Tennis World Cup: eight countries set, Alcaraz in, Sinner out injured

All trends by date

You can have your own trends

You choose the topic — several AIs prepare solutions

Free learning app →

Pistachios are running out in China, and stores now limit how many you buy

What to do

Who should do what

What the world's leading AIs think

China's first Costco opens to scenes of chaos

Rankings

Top Pistachio-Producing Countries by Harvest Risk

Why Are Pistachios So Expensive Now? Top 10 Markets

Forecast before the AIs

The result of the last question

More to explore

More on this topic

Previous trends

You can have your own trends